Volkanovski Stops Evloev at 38, Yan Survives 58 Takedown Attempts — and Our Picks Go 3–1

We picked against the champion. The champion made us pay with six seconds left in round 2.

Alexander Volkanovski handed Movsar Evloev the first loss of his career on Saturday at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, stopping him at 4:54 of round 2. An hour earlier, Petr Yan dropped the first two rounds of his trilogy with Merab Dvalishvili, then took the last three to keep the bantamweight belt.

Fourteen fights. Seven stoppages, seven decisions. Here's what happened, and how our picks held up.

Main event: Alexander Volkanovski def. Movsar Evloev (TKO, punches, R2 4:54)

The fight started the way we said it would. Evloev went 3 for 4 on takedowns in round 1. That's the exact path we built our pick on.

Then the part we got wrong: Volkanovski got up every time. Evloev had just 31 seconds of control in round 1 to show for those three takedowns. In round 2 he went 0 for 3, and Volkanovski kept landing.

The numbers:

• Significant strikes: Volkanovski 56, Evloev 40.
• Takedowns: Evloev 3 of 7 (all in round 1). Volkanovski 1 of 2.
• Control time: Volkanovski 1:44, Evloev 0:46.

Late in round 2, with a cut and swelling under his left eye, Volkanovski staggered Evloev with a right hand and swarmed him until the referee stepped in with six seconds left in the round.

It's Volkanovski's second title defense of the year, his record moves to 29-4, and it's his ninth featherweight title-fight win, tying José Aldo for the most in division history. Evloev, who had won all 10 of his UFC fights on the scorecards, is now 20-1. Volkanovski earned a $100,000 Performance of the Night bonus and says he wants to keep going.

The Counter's read (and where we were wrong): Our case was that Volk's 69% takedown defense would leak over 25 minutes. It did leak, three times in five minutes. But we treated a takedown as control time, and against Volkanovski it wasn't. He got straight back up, and Evloev never got to the championship rounds where we expected the math to add up. We named the thing that would flip it: Volk's defense holding through round 3. It didn't need to. He ended it in round 2.

Co-main: Petr Yan def. Merab Dvalishvili (unanimous decision, 48-47 x3)

Merab came in promising a new plan. He threw it at Yan 58 times.

Dvalishvili landed 5 of 58 takedowns, under 9%. Four of the five came in round 2, when he banked his second straight round. After that, he went 0 for 39.

• Significant strikes: Merab 131, Yan 128, but Yan landed at 56% to Merab's 36%.
• Round 5: Yan 52 significant strikes to Merab's 40, and Merab 0 for 11 on takedowns.

Yan lost rounds 1 and 2, then took 3, 4 and 5 on all three cards. Nine months after back surgery, he stuffed shot after shot and got stronger as Merab slowed. It earned both men Fight of the Night, $100,000 each.

The Counter's read: Right winner, right method. We worried the back surgery and the line drift toward Merab might matter. The back held up for 25 minutes against the most persistent wrestler in the division. The trilogy is settled 2–1.

Aaron Pico def. Losene Keita (TKO, R1 1:14)

We drew this up as a wrestling fight that Pico would grind out over three rounds. It lasted 74 seconds. Pico opened the main card with a first-round TKO of the short-notice replacement for his second UFC win.

Alexander Volkov def. Rizvan Kuniev (unanimous decision, 29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Volkov worked from range and kept it standing, as expected, and won on his 38th birthday. Afterward he asked publicly what more he needs to do to get a title shot.

The rest of the card, fast

• Lone'er Kavanagh stopped Ramazan Temirov in round 1 (4:28). ($100K bonus.)
• Dominick Reyes knocked out Azamat Murzakanov in round 1 (2:40).
• Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev knocked out Nikita Krylov in round 1 (2:38).
• Abus Magomedov submitted Cam Rowston in round 1 (1:44).
• Kody Steele stopped Noah Gugnon in round 1 (3:54).
• Grant Dawson beat Nurullo Aliev by unanimous decision.
• Colby Thicknesse edged Asaf Chopurov by split decision.
• Abubakar Vagaev beat Jacob Malkoun by unanimous decision.
• Daniel Santos beat Bolaji Oki by unanimous decision.
• Iasmin Lucindo beat Nicolle Caliari by unanimous decision (30-27 x3).

Our picks, graded: 3–1

We post every pick and grade every one, especially the misses.

The honest notes:

• Evloev: we went against most of the experts and they were right. The takedowns landed early, as we expected. What we missed was how fast Volkanovski would get back up, and that the fight would end before the late rounds we were counting on.
• Yan: right winner and right method. Merab's takedown success stayed under 10% for the second straight fight, this time on twice as many attempts (58, up from 29).
• Pico: right winner, wrong picture. We expected wrestling over three rounds. It was over in 74 seconds.
• Volkov: right winner, right method. The reach and range played out as written.

Event: 3–1. Season record: 5–3 (62.5%).

Next up: UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, Saturday. Free preview Thursday, picks Friday.

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