Allen Out-Grapples the Numbers, Taps Duncan in Round 5 — and Our Picks Go 2–2

Christian Leroy Duncan won the striking battle by a mile on Saturday night at the Meta Apex. He still lost, because Brendan Allen kept dragging the fight to a place Duncan couldn't win.

Twelve fights, nine finishes, two head-kick knockouts, a majority draw, and a fifth-round submission to close the show. Here's what happened, and how our picks held up.

Main event: Brendan Allen def. Christian Leroy Duncan (submission, rear-naked choke, R5 2:46)

On paper, Duncan won this fight. He out-landed Allen 106 to 51 in significant strikes at 56% accuracy. In round 4 alone he landed 46 significant strikes to Allen's 17, and Allen didn't get a second of control time.

Then look at the other columns:

• Takedowns: Allen 4 of 11. Duncan 0 attempts.
• Control time: Allen 8:39, Duncan 3:51.
• Submission attempts: Allen 2, Duncan 0.
• Point deduction: Duncan lost a point for an eye poke early in the fight.

That's the whole fight in four lines. Allen took Duncan down in rounds 1, 2, 3 and 5. Duncan scrambled well and even took Allen's back in round 3, but every exchange on the mat reset the clock on Duncan's striking and drained his gas tank. Ninety seconds into round 5, Allen got a body lock, dragged Duncan down, took the back with both hooks, and sank the choke. Duncan fought it, refused to tap, and then had no choice.

It's Allen's fourth straight win, and it earned him a $100,000 Performance of the Night bonus. Afterward he asked for a title shot, or failing that, former champ Dricus Du Plessis.

The Counter's read (and where we were wrong): We said the fight would be decided in rounds 4 and 5, and it was. But not the way we drew it up. We expected Duncan to fade. Instead, round 4 was his best round of the night. What won it for Allen wasn't Duncan running out of gas. It was 11 takedown attempts that kept the fight close enough on the cards, plus a point deduction that put Duncan behind, and one clean grappling sequence when it mattered. Duncan is a real contender. He just needs takedown defense that holds up for 25 minutes.

Co-main: Jai Herbert def. Matheus Camilo (unanimous decision)

Herbert took a clean 29-28 on all three cards. A good win for the Englishman over a fighter who came in talking big after his last knockout.

The rest of the card, fast

• Andre Fili knocked out Kai Kamaka III with a head kick just 22 seconds into round 2. ($100K bonus.)
• Otari Tanzilovi knocked out Malcolm Wellmaker with a head kick in round 2 (2:39). ($100K bonus.)
• Loopy Godinez beat Ketlen Souza by unanimous decision (29-28 x3). Bloodied but never in real danger.
• Julius Walker stopped Gerald Meerschaert by TKO in round 2 (3:35).
• Francisco Prado stopped Ismael Bonfim in round 1 (4:23).
• Niko Price stopped Leon Shahbazyan in round 1 (1:58).
• Brendson Ribeiro submitted Felipe Franco with a guillotine in round 1 (1:49).
• Allen Frye Jr. knocked out RJ Harris in round 1 (2:59).
• Alice Pereira beat Darya Zheleznyakova when the cut forced a stoppage after round 1. ($100K bonus.)
• Ernesta Kareckaite vs. Melissa Gatto ended in a majority draw after a point deduction.

Our picks, graded: 2–2

We post every pick and grade every one, especially the misses.

The honest notes:

• Allen: right winner and right method. Wrong reason: we expected Duncan to fade, and round 4 was his best round.
• Fili vs. Kamaka: we leaned Fili as the side, but the official pick was the distance, and it didn't get out of round 2. That's a loss.
• Meerschaert: we flagged this as the upset-risk fight. It was. Walker's youth beat the veteran's grappling.

Season record: 2–2.

Next up: UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, Saturday in Edmonton. Free preview Thursday, picks Friday.

Read the feint. Call the counter.