UFC 333 Picks: Why We're Taking Evloev When Almost Nobody Else Is

Two title fights, one undefeated challenger, and a trilogy tied 1–1. UFC 333 goes down Saturday at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, and the main event is as close to a coin flip as a title fight gets.

Here's the card, how to watch, and our four picks. Every one goes on the public record and gets graded Sunday, win or lose.

How to watch (Central Time)

• Prelims: about 9:00 AM CT
• Main card: about 1:00 PM CT
• Where: Paramount+

The main card

• Alexander Volkanovski (c) vs. Movsar Evloev: featherweight title
• Petr Yan (c) vs. Merab Dvalishvili: bantamweight title, fight 3
• Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Ramazan Temirov: flyweight
• Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev: heavyweight
• Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita: featherweight

Also on the card: Azamat Murzakanov vs. Dominick Reyes, Nikita Krylov vs. Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev, Abus Magomedov vs. Cam Rowston, Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev, Colby Thicknesse vs. Asaf Chopurov, Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun, Bolaji Oki vs. Daniel Santos, Kody Steele vs. Noah Gugnon, and Iasmin Lucindo vs. Nicolle Caliari.

Weigh-ins: every fighter made weight except Caliari, who came in 4.5 pounds over and was fined 30% of her purse. That fight still goes ahead.

Our picks at a glance

Four low-confidence picks, and we'd rather say that up front. The main event is a pure pick'em at the books, and the other three are priced between roughly -115 and -160. Nothing on this card is a lock.

Main event: Alexander Volkanovski (c) vs. Movsar Evloev

The setup. Volkanovski (28-4) is 38, a two-time champion, and one of the best featherweights ever. Evloev (20-0, 10-0 UFC) is 32, undefeated, and has won all 10 of his UFC fights on the scorecards. Both made weight cleanly: Volk at 144.5, Evloev at 145.

The numbers that frame it

How Volkanovski wins: He out-lands Evloev by about two significant strikes a minute. If he keeps it standing, every takedown attempt Evloev wastes costs energy over 25 minutes. He can also bank the early rounds on volume: in his last fight, against Lerone Murphy, Evloev didn't attempt a takedown in rounds 1 or 2 and lost round 2 on all three cards.

How Evloev wins: Chain wrestling against a 38-year-old, all night. Against Murphy he went 9 of 10 on takedowns from round 3 on and got stronger as the fight went. Judges have rewarded his control in close fights. And Volkanovski has been dropped in each of his last two fights.

What the experts say. Most of them are on Volkanovski. Demetrious Johnson's film study says the wrestling is Evloev's clearest edge, but that he has to turn pressure into sustained offense, and his projection came back to Volk. Aljamain Sterling, who lost to Evloev, picks Volk to win the fight standing. Diego Lopes, who has fought both, picks Volk. The Tapology community is about 78% Volk. On the other side, Islam Makhachev leans Evloev on youth, and Jorge Masvidal backs his ATT teammate's strength and cardio (an obviously biased read).

Volkanovski himself says he'll stop the takedowns and finish Evloev late. He's one of our favorite breakdown voices, but this time he's in the fight, so we treat it as what it is: the champion's game plan, not analysis.

Why we see it differently. Almost every Volkanovski pick rests on one idea: that he defends takedowns for five rounds. His career takedown defense is 69%. That means roughly one in three attempts gets through, and Evloev lands 4.78 takedowns per 15 minutes while shooting the whole fight. Over 25 minutes, that math adds up to control time in close rounds, and close rounds are where Evloev has won before.

The betting market agrees it's a coin flip, and the single likeliest outcome it prices, Evloev by decision, is our pick.

What would flip it: Volkanovski's takedown defense holding through round 3, as he predicts. If Evloev is 1-for-8 heading into the championship rounds, this belongs to the champ.

🔴 Pick: Movsar Evloev by decision. Confidence: low.

Co-main: Petr Yan (c) vs. Merab Dvalishvili 3

The setup. Tied 1–1. Merab won the first fight in 2023 with a shutout. Yan won the rematch at UFC 323 last December by unanimous decision (49-46, 49-46, 48-47).

What changed between fights 1 and 2

Yan nearly doubled his output and stuffed almost every shot. Merab still won control early, but Yan took over in rounds 4 and 5.

The big unknown: Yan's back. Yan had a nine-hour lower-back surgery in late January. He made 135 on Friday, celebrated with a cartwheel on the scale, and at media day dismissed Sean O'Malley's doubts, pointing out he's come back from surgeries before. O'Malley now calls the fight even because of the surgery, but that's an opinion, not new medical information. No credible setback has been reported.

Merab's side. He says the rematch camp, taken on about two months' notice, left him burned out, and that this time he's had a full camp and a new plan. He's promised "domination."

How Yan wins: Keeps his 86% takedown defense, out-strikes Merab on efficiency like he did in fight 2, and takes over late with body work.

How Merab wins: Gets back to fight-1 takedown success instead of fight-2. A high pace from round 1 to test the back and the layoff, with body shots to set up his entries.

What the experts say. Henry Cejudo expects Merab to dominate on the mat. Umar Nurmagomedov picks Yan, saying Merab can take him down but can't keep him there. O'Malley, who wants to fight the winner, calls it even.

The market: Yan is still the favorite, but money has come in on Merab this week. Yan was about -180 at BetOnline on Oct 14 and is now roughly -142 to -161 at DraftKings. That drift is the honest reason our confidence stays low.

🔴 Pick: Petr Yan by decision. Confidence: low. He solved the wrestling last time, and nothing credible came out about the back.

Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita

Pico (14-5) is a former blue-chip wrestling prospect coming off a decision win over Patricio Pitbull. Keita (17-2) is a former two-weight Oktagon champion taking this on about five weeks' notice, seven weeks after a first-round knockout of Naimov. He has attempted zero takedowns in the UFC. Keita missed weight for a planned UFC debut in 2025; this time he made 146.

How Pico wins: Wrestles early, keeps Keita out of power range, and outworks him over three rounds.

How Keita wins: Lands the counter right early. Pico has been stopped in round 1 before, by Lerone Murphy in his UFC debut. Pico himself calls Keita a dangerous puncher.

🔴 Pick: Aaron Pico. Confidence: low. The wrestling path is clearer and the short-notice camp is real. Keita making weight took away one of his risks, which is why this isn't higher.

Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev

Volkov (40-11) turns 38 on fight day and is ranked #3. Kuniev (15-3-1) is #8 and coming off a TKO of Fortune with knees. They share two common opponents: both beat Jailton Almeida, and both lost to Curtis Blaydes (Kuniev's loss was widely scored for him by media).

How Volkov wins: Jab and kicks from range with a 4-inch reach edge (80" to 76"), and keeps it standing. Kuniev is 0 for 4 on takedowns in the UFC.

How Kuniev wins: Closes the distance into the clinch, where his knees finished Fortune. He's hard to hit and can steal a close decision.

The market: close to a coin flip, roughly Volkov -115 to -125.

🔴 Pick: Alexander Volkov by decision. Confidence: low. Range and experience over 15 minutes.

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