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# The Counter: Allen vs. Duncan Breakdown & Picks
- URL: https://feint-and-counter.ghost.io/allen-vs-duncan-picks/
- Published: 2026-10-09T13:05:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-09T13:04:59.000Z
- Description: How each man wins, why rounds 4 and 5 decide it, and our picks for the main card.
- Author: Cam Osborne
- Tags: Fight Week, Picks

## Main event: Allen vs. Duncan

### By the numbers

|                             | Allen          | Duncan         |
| --------------------------- | -------------- | -------------- |
| Record                      | 27-7           | 15-2           |
| Reach                       | 75"            | **79"**        |
| Sig. strikes landed / min   | 3.75           | **4.45**       |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 3.78           | **2.36**       |
| Striking accuracy / defense | 52% / 48%      | **58% / 54%**  |
| Takedown defense            | 58%            | 58%            |
| Sub attempts / 15 min       | **1.06**       | 0.00           |
| Wins: KO / Sub / Dec        | 6 / **14** / 7 | **10** / 1 / 4 |

*Source: UFC.com career stats.*

**What the numbers say:** Duncan is the better striker on paper. He lands more, gets hit less, and has a four-inch reach edge. Allen's case is almost entirely grappling: 14 of his 27 wins are submissions, and Duncan's 58% takedown defense is only average. The betting market has it close to a coin flip (Allen slight favorite).

**What they're saying:** Allen says Duncan's only real path is landing something clean early, and that he plans to drag the fight into deep water. Our expert panel (Volkanovski, Holloway, Cruz, Cormier, and others) hadn't weighed in publicly as of Thursday. We'll add their takes if they do.

**How Allen wins:** Allen's best weapon is getting the fight to the mat and staying on top, and his submission game punishes any mistake in scrambles. He wants this to be a grinding fight, and he wants it to get late.

**How Duncan wins:** Duncan is the more dangerous striker at range, and his last few wins came from pressure and power. If he keeps the fight standing, stuffs the early takedowns, and makes Allen pay on entries, he can hurt him and swing the judges.

**The key: rounds 4 and 5.** Duncan hasn't been past three rounds in the UFC. Allen has. Every takedown attempt Duncan defends costs him energy, even when he defends it successfully. If Allen keeps shooting through the first two rounds, the championship rounds lean his way.

**What would flip it:** Duncan landing clean early, before the grappling wears on him. Duncan's best path is a finish in rounds 1–2.

**Pick: Brendan Allen.** Confidence: **low**. The striking numbers favor Duncan, so this pick rides on Allen's grappling and five-round experience. Most likely method: Allen by submission or decision after a tough first half. If Duncan wins, it's probably early, and by knockout.

## Fili vs. Kamaka III

Both fighters keep a high pace and like to trade. Fili has seen everything over a long UFC career, while Kamaka brings youth and volume. Expect it to go long and stay entertaining.

**Pick: Fight goes the distance.** If you want a side: **Fili**, low confidence, on experience in a close fight.

## Godinez vs. Souza

Godinez fights with relentless activity and mixes her wrestling with volume. Souza has the heavier hands. If Godinez keeps the pace up and mixes in takedowns, she wins on the scorecards.

**Pick: Lupita Godinez by decision.** Confidence: medium.

## Meerschaert vs. Walker

Meerschaert's grappling and experience against Walker's youth and athleticism. Veteran grapplers are dangerous against fighters who haven't been tested on the mat.

**Pick: Meerschaert.** Confidence: low. This is the upset-risk fight on the card.

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Every pick goes on the [Picks Record](https://feint-and-counter.ghost.io/picks-record/). We grade every one, win or lose. Check back Sunday.